A Thai taehwa farmers research center in January, the report said global economic recovery, produce get [16.21 3.91% respectively] export trend good, as well as a number of free trade agreement becomes effective tariffs, plus 2009 export serious atrophy, and a low base, 2010 Thailand exports are expected to increase growth 10.5%, prediction interval 9-12%.
However, 2010 Thailand exports still exist in the risk factors, need careful and concern trade partners, such as the main economic recovery efforts weak, trading partners to implement more strict trade protection measures, the Thai baht exchange rate appreciation influence part products price competition, etc.
On the other hand, must also be paying more attention to the other domestic factors including Thailand export industry competitiveness problem, and domestic political changes, will affect foreign importers of Thailand manufacturers able to deliver goods on time faith, order dispersion caused to other countries and risk.
According to the product category analysis, the anticipated growth good export products have large commodity, food and high-tech products. Among them, the estimated exceeded 10% export products have rice, rubber, finished product fuel, basic metal, rubber products, auto and spare parts, mostly last serious atrophy, price situation after a bullish large items.
The value of exports this year growth estimate about 5-10% of the product's shrimp products such as food, electronic products, electrical and spare parts, jewelry (excluding gold) and plastic aggregates. This year the value of exports have the opportunity to present growth, but still must concern of export products include textiles and clothing, shoes, leather products, this kind of product market competition is intense, and the other main rivals such as China and Vietnam, Thailand on cost compared and exchange rates are at a disadvantage. And some of the export products still face problems, especially lack of competitiveness, such as furniture and plastic products.
The latest figures show that December 2009, Thailand, exports from November 138.4 billion to $146.29 than 26.1%, rise, annual growth and nearly 17 months to record highs, also continuous 2 months appear growth. Manufacturers raise the order the expected price tends to rise of agricultural products is also one of the important reasons. Although exports greatly increase is partly 2008 period lower base, but the season adjustment on exports than improving 14.4 percent.
2009 1 - October export sharply atrophy, 2009 annual export value from the 2008 1,777.75 billion dollars, reduced to 1,525.02 billion dollars, atrophic 14.2%, become the largest ever fall.
However, unlike other Asian countries declining exports more than 20% compared, for instance, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines and Taiwan, Thailand's performance has been compared, not too bad than atrophy exceed 15% of China, India and Indonesia is also better.
However, due to Thailand export dependency high economic structure and Thailand to become the regions under the global financial crisis, as one of the worst hit economies, after Hong Kong, Malaysia and Taiwan. Export atrophy leads to 2009 Thailand gross domestic product (GDP) loss 7.3%.
